Text丨Telo
3月13日，煤炭库存领导了A股市场， 达到了每日限制， Coal ，Xinji ，煤炭行业， ， ，中国煤炭能源，中国等人接一个地升起。
If you want to ask what is the most way to make money by A- in the past few years?
The may be the of most :
煤炭。
从2019年到2023年，煤炭部门的年度连续六年已经关闭，而像中国申豪（）这样的行业领导者连续六次上升。 Coal is not the most , but it is the most . at the A-share , no can have such and .
Not only does coal's stock price rise, but its yield is also high.
根据创始人证券的统计数据，在过去12个月中，煤炭部门的股息收益率高达6.5％，是该行业的第一个。 In 2023, the yield of A- is only about 3%.
根据当前数据，煤炭部门的股息收益率是整个资本市场的两倍以上，是国库券收益率和银行固定存款的三倍以上。
Coal are high and are also high.
即使连续六年已经上升了，即使利润下降，煤炭部门的估值水平仍然很低，PE（TTM）仅约10倍，远远低于过去20年中历史平均价值的15倍以上。 This is much safer than the theme with that are or even of times.
在其他行业中，如果其他行业有任何基本动荡，即使煤炭利润急剧下跌，股价也会急剧下跌，这也不会影响股票价格。
In fact, the coal price has moved down since 2023, and has a in of coal , but the coal is still very in the .
For , from 2023 to March 2024, the coal rose by 29%, the and 300 Index by 30pct, while the price of coal fell by 32 yuan/ton this .
In the first three of 2024, the of the coal and fell by 21% year-on-year to 473.7 yuan, and the net to at fell by 22% year-on-year to 117 yuan.尽管如此，在同一时期，领先的煤炭公司的股价仍在上涨。
In the past two , as coal have , coal have also shown signs of . , if we look at it on a time scale, coal may no have the same value space as , but it is not time to say .
Coal has out, which is by both and .
In terms of , the of power is (from 71% in 2021 to 67% at ), as the of the whole to rise (the of the whole by 7.6% year-on-year from to 2024), the for power has not but . From to 2024, the power of power was 574.42 -hours, an of 2% year-on-year.
, new has a , power's as the main force in power be in a short of time. As such as and new , the for . Take as an . to CICC's , data power will 400 -hours in 2025, a from 270 -hours in 2022. In 2025, full-scope power is to grow by about 6.5% year-on-year, while coal-fired power has room for of about 3.5%.
At the level, 's coal and the in coal are the two that the , and at , there is room for these two major .
Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, among the coal mines above one tons by the and and the , 's coal mines for 61% and for 40%. The high- coal coal with and . In the first 10 of 2024, the scale of coal in by 21% year-on-year, and the scale of coal (rail) by about 50% year-on-year the same .同时，进口煤炭的规模也创造了创纪录的高度。 The in the first ten of 2024 has 435 tons, a year-on-year of 13.5%, and is to 500 tons in the whole year of 2024.
It be clear that there are rigid costs or of coal.
has a .从和Hami到港口运输的新疆煤炭的成本价格分别为738元和768元。 The value of coal is about 5,000 . 5500卡路里的标准产品的价格分别对应于812元和845元/吨。目前，的价格为5500卡路里的热煤已经破坏了800元/吨。
因此，将新疆煤炭运输到是不再经济的，这反过来将构成对煤炭价格的支持。
进口也是如此。尽管国内煤炭价格继续下跌，但印度尼西亚/澳大利亚的煤炭价格却大幅下跌。 with the of the RMB, have been , and and high-level coal has even shown . In 2023, the cost of coal FOB is 124 /ton, to the port tax price (>5700K) in East China () is about 821 yuan/ton.
根据所有这些信息，煤炭价格继续下跌的房间可能非常有限。
自提出的“双重碳”战略以来，煤炭项目批准的生产能力规模急剧下降。 The scale from 2020 to 2023 is about 40 tons/year, which has been with the level of more than 80 tons/year in 2008 to 2019. This that coal will not have the basis for large-scale in the short cycle in the . Once the next cycle , coal's level will still be for , state-owned such as China and China Coal that can alpha .
China Coal as an , the 's is that the of long-term coal in the long term ( - and long-term are at no less than 80% of its own ), and even if the coal price , the on the 's is . to the of the port long-term index, the of spot on long-term is 5%-14%, that is, the spot price drops by 100 yuan/ton, and the long-term price drops by only 5-14 yuan/ton.
中国神沙的优势是其低成本。该公司的开放坑矿占其煤矿的40％，其资源捐赠非常高。 The cost of ton of coal is far ahead among large coal , with only 179 yuan/ton in 2023. On this basis, China 's area is very , so the the of the chain in the the of coal and ports.总而言之，中国神沙的综合成本优势在行业中是无与伦比的。
撇开基本面，煤炭面前有两个主要的政策益处。
首先是中央国有企业的市场价值管理。
, the State-owned and of the State the " on and the Value of in ", which value in the of the of and .
第二个是回购和增加持股。
Not long ago, the bank's in and re- tools were , with the first quota of 300 yuan.如果做得好，它可以再获得3000亿元人民币，甚至可以获得第三亿元人民币。 to , the rate for to issue loans to shall not 2.25%, and with a yield of more than 6% in the coal , there is space of 4 for , which will the of major to their .
过去，中国的经济增长迅速，资本市场更愿意为高增长公司提供估值溢价。既然经济正朝着稳定的增长发展，投资者自然更愿意支付股息资产。煤炭部门的昌港是本章的序幕。
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