The U.S. is lurching toward recession or humming along just fine. As the bull market in stocks nears its 10-year anniversary next month, the search for a spoiler will likely intensify.
美国经济正缓慢地走向衰退，又或者是在安然运行，皆有可能。 随着3月份美股牛市的10周年之日来临，市场可能会更关注潜在的“搅局分子”。
With so many data points and market indicators to choose from, what is the best gauge to spot economic trouble?
有这么多的数据和市场指标可供选择，那什么才是监控经济问题出现的最佳指标呢？
We asked three equity strategists and two top bond managers to give us their favorite indicators—though cracks are forming, none scream imminent recession. Here are five signals they are monitoring to help them decide when it is time to get more defensive:
我们向三位股票策略师和两位顶级债券基金经理咨询了他们最青睐的指标——尽管裂痕正在形成，但他们都并不认为衰退会马上到来。以下是他们正在监控的五个信号，用来帮助他们决定何时加强防御：
1、企业利润率
Profit Margins
Who: Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock , overseeing $1.9 trillion in assets.
Indicator: Corporate profit margins—more specifically, the impact of wages on margins.
企业利润率
里克•瑞德（Rick Rieder），贝莱德集团 （BlackRock, Inc.，BLK）全球固定收益首席投资官，管理资产规模达1.9万亿美元。
指标：企业利润率——更具体地说，是工资水平对利润率的影响。
Rieder’s favored indicator is a mouthful: Labor costs as a percent of gross value added for nonfinancial companies. About two to three years before a recession, that ratio tends to increase alongside a decline in corporate profits as a percent of gross value added.Rieder says labor costs have been increasing off postcrisis lows, but have stabilized more recently—a reason he doesn’t see an imminent recession in the U.S.
瑞德青睐的指标有些拗口：劳动力成本占非金融公司附加值总额（GVA）的百分比。在经济衰退前两到三年，随着公司利润占GVA比例的下降，劳动力成本占GVA比例往往会上升。瑞德表示，虽然金融危机结束后，劳动力成本从低位持续上升，但近期已趋于稳定——这是他没有感到美国经济衰退迫在眉睫的原因之一。
2、供应链数据
Supply Chain Data
Who: Dan Fuss, manager of the $11 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund
Indicator: Anecdotal data from supply chain checks across industries.
供应链数据
丹·法斯（Dan Fuss），卢米斯-塞尔斯（Loomis Sayles）债券基金经理，管理资产规模110亿美元。
指标：不同行业的供应链数据。
Fuss says one of his favorite indicators for spotting a change in economic conditions is the data his analysts glean from supply chains in different industries. That includes, for example, the orders received by those in the final step of assembly of a Ford pickup, as well as orders and pricing several layers deeper into the supply chain where the change is often magnified.
At the moment, there has been a slight deterioration in orders, but not enough to spark concerns of a recession, Fuss says. “What I’m doing here is relying on the basics I’ve learned since starting in 1958, and finding everything I can to figure out what data the Fed is getting as input,” Fuss says, with detailed supply chain indicators among them.
法斯表示，他最喜欢用来衡量经济状况变化的指标之一，是手下分析师从不同行业的供应链中收集到的数据，例如，福特皮卡车下游工厂的订单数据。此外，供应链上游的订单和价格水平，经常更能反映经济形势变化。
从目前的情况来看，订单数据略有下滑，但并不足以引发对衰退的担忧。“我依靠着自1958年以来学到的基础知识，尽可能找出美联储视为经济判断指标的数据。”法斯补充说。这些数据就包括详细的供应链指标。
3、美国大企业联合会数据
Conference Board Data
Who: Saira Malik, head of equities at Nuveen, overseeing $300 billion.
Indicator: Conference Board Leading Economic Index.
美国大企业联合会数据
萨伊拉·马利克 （Saira Malik），纽文投资（Nuveen Investments）证券投资部负责人 ，管理资产规模3000亿美元。
指标：美国大企业联合会领先经济指标（Conference Board Leading Economic Index）。
The index mixes hard data, soft data, and market indicators and usually turns negative on a year-over-year basis six to 18 months before a recession. Its latest reading was up about 4% from a year ago, though that is still down from a recent 7% rate of improvement at its peak. But Malik expects it to bounce back from what was a gloomy December.
该指数涵盖硬数据、软数据和市场指标，通常在经济衰退前6至18个月出现同比负增长。最新指数同比增长了约4%，但仍低于7%的近期峰值。马利克预计该指数将出现反弹，从去年12月的阴霾中恢复过来。
4、谷歌趋势
Google Trends
Who：Yin Luo, head of quantitative research, economics and portfolio strategy at Wolfe Research.
Indicator: Google Trends.
谷歌趋势
罗崟（Yin Luo），研究机构沃尔夫（Wolfe Research）定量研究、经济和投资组合策略负责人。
指标：“谷歌趋势”（Google Trends）。
Luo tracks nine different indicators to monitor for recession, including the yield curve and regional bank recession indicators. But he also tracks Google Trends, creating a proprietary uncertainty index that monitors keywords related to “economy,” “recession,” and “economic uncertainty,” adjusted for location and seasonality. That index currently sits below 60; a reading above 90 is when it gets more worrying, Luo says.
罗崟通过跟踪9个不同指标来监测经济衰退，包括收益率曲线和区域性银行衰退指标。同时他也追踪“谷歌趋势“，这是一个自创的不确定性指数，监控与“经济”、“衰退”和“经济不确定性”相关的关键词，并根据地域和季节因素进行调整。罗崟表示，该指数目前处于60以下，而达到90以上则预示经济出现问题。
5、就业数据
Employment Data
Who: Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research
Indicator: Participation and unemployment rate among African-Americans.
就业数据
DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉·科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）。
指标：非裔美国人的劳动参与率和失业率。
Colas admits this is controversial: “Hiring works across all racial backgrounds, but African-Americans are often the first fired,” Colas says, citing research by Kenneth Couch and Robert Fairlie on employment trends going back to 1970. “It is a leading indicator—and looking back through the last couple cycles it works.”
科拉斯承认这项指标有争议。“所有族裔群体都能得到工作，但非裔美国人往往最先被解雇。”科拉斯援引肯尼斯·考奇（Kenneth Couch）和罗伯特·费尔利（Robert Fairlie）1970年关于就业趋势的研究称。“这是一个先行指标，它在过去的几个周期中都是有效的。”
Colas says the unemployment rate and participation rate among African-Americans are among the first data points he checks in the jobs data. African-American unemployment hit a low of 7.6% in the last economic cycle, in August 2007, and had risen to 9% by December of that year. Those looking at overall employment, though, may not have seen the weakness in the labor market because it sat at 4.6% in August and rose just modestly to 5% by that December.
科拉斯表示，非裔美国人的失业率和劳动参与率是他重点观察的就业数据。在上个经济周期中，非裔美国人失业率在2007年8月降至7.6％的低点，同年12月已上升到9％；当时，关注整体就业情况的人可能看不到劳动力市场的疲软，因为美国总体失业率在2007年8月保持在4.6％，到12月仅小幅上升至5％。
In this cycle, African-American unemployment hit a low of 5.9% last May. The rate now sits at 6.8%. That coincides with African-American participation rates picking up from 62.1% to 62.8% in January. The rising participation rate also suggests that net job losses aren’t the only thing behind the unemployment rate ticking higher. To make sure labor market trends remain intact, Colas says he wants to see stable or even lower unemployment for African-Americans in future job reports. But for now, no red flags.
在当前周期中，非裔美国人失业率在2018年5月降至5.9%的低点，目前则是6.8%，这与2019年1月非裔美国人劳动参与率从62.1%上升到62.8%相吻合。劳动参与率上升表明，工作岗位净减少并不是失业率上升的唯一原因。为确认劳动力市场趋势完好，科拉斯希望在未来的就业报告中看到非裔美国人失业率持稳或者降低。但就目前而言，还没有危险信号显现。
词语解析
- spoiler：
搞砸…的人或事物；选举中的搅局者；剧透
- mouthful：
又长又拗口的词或短语
- Leading Economic Index：
领先经济指标，是指一系列引导经济循环的相关经济指标和经济变量的加权平均数
- red flag
用来警示危险的信号
